(BBC)大型阅兵式上展示的新武器揭示了中国军事力量的哪些信息
巴菲特廊坊分特
 

China has unveiled a range of new weapons, drones and other military hardware in a massive parade that many see as a clear message to the United States and its allies.

The event sawhost more than 20 foreign heads of state, including Russia's Vladimir Putin and North Korea's Kim Jong Un, both of whom rely on China for economic support and more.

It was a display of's growing power on the world stage, and of China's military prowess - the show included the "Guam killer" missile, the "loyal wingman" drone and even robotic wolves.

Beyond the hype and shiny new weaponry, what did we learn?

Here are our five takeaways.

1. China has a lot of weapons. How well can it deploy them?

What was clear from Wednesday's display was that China has been able to quickly produce a diverse range of weapons.

Ten years ago, the military technology they put on show tended to be "rudimentary copies" of far more advanced equipment invented by the US, notes Michael Raska, assistant professor in the military transformations programme at the Nanyang Technological University of Singapore.

But this parade revealed a more innovative and diverse range of weapons, particularly drones and missiles - a reflection of how advanced their defence-industrial complex has become.

China's top-down structure and significant resources enable it to churn out new weapons faster than many other countries, points out Alexander Neill, an adjunct fellow with the Pacific Forum.

It can also produce them in huge quantities, giving it a battlefield advantage where it can overwhelm the enemy.

"China has the ability to churn out munitions, ships, all these platforms... the state can just make these directives and off they go," Mr Neill says.

But how well can China's military integrate these weapons systems?

"They can show off these flashy advanced platforms, but are they organisationally agile to use them in the way they want to?" Dr Raska asks.

He adds that it won't be easy because the Chinese military is massive and untested, given it has not been involved in a significant war for decades.

2. China is focusing on missiles to counter the US

China has rolled out plenty of missiles, including some new variants.

These include the Dongfeng-61, which is capable of carrying multiple warheads in its nosecone; the Dongfeng-5C intercontinental ballistic missile which could be launched from northern China and hit the US; and the "Guam Killer" Dongfeng-26D intermediate range missile, which could hit key US military bases in Guam.

A graphic with annotation for the DF-61 missile reads "China's new intercontinental missile capable of carrying nuclear warheads"

The DF-61 missiles made their public debut during the parade

There were also several hypersonic anti-ship missiles such as the YJ-17 and YJ-19, which can fly very fast and maneuver unpredictably to evade anti-missile systems.

There's a reason for this focus on missiles.

China has been developing missiles and rocket forces as a key part of its deterrence strategy - and to counter the US' naval superiority, Mr Neill says.

The US Navy is unrivalled in the world with the largest fleet of aircraft carriers and carrier strike groups - China still lags behind on that count.

But, Mr Neill points out, some in the Western defence community are increasingly arguing that these strike groups are vulnerable, as they are effectively "sitting ducks" for any missile attacks.

Beijing is not only strengthening deterrence, but is also creating a "second strike capability," he says - a country's ability to launch a retaliatory strike if attacked.

Other notable weapons included the much-talked about LY-1 laser weapon, which is basically a giant laser that could burn or disable electronics or even blind pilots; and an assortment of fifth-generation stealth fighter jets including the J-20 and J-35 planes.

3. China is going all the way with AI and drones

There were a wide range of drones, some of them AI-powered, but the one that grabbed eyeballs was the AJX-002 giant submarine drone.

Also known as an extra-large uncrewed underwater vehicle (XLUUV) measuring up to 20m (65ft) in length, it could possibly do surveillance and reconnaissance missions.

A graphic with annotation for the AJX-002 drone reads "A giant, 60-foot (18m) underwater nuclear-capable unmanned vehicle"

China also showed off its GJ-11 stealth attack drone, dubbed the "loyal wingman", which can fly alongside a manned fighter jet and aid it in its attacks.

Besides an array of conventional aerial drones, there were also "robotic wolves". Experts say these could be used for a variety of tasks from reconnaissance and sweeping for mines, to hunting down enemy soldiers.

The drone display shows a clear direction that China wants to take with its military strategy, where it "not only wants to augment, but replace traditional structures".

It has clearly taken lessons from the Ukraine war, where one can "just throw drones at the enemy" to wear down their defences, Dr Raska notes.

"Alacrity in the kill chain matters," adds Mr Neill, pointing out that in a fast-moving battle, decisions have to be made in "nanoseconds" to defeat the enemy and gain the upper hand – which is what AI can do.

Many countries are still concerned about deploying AI in their military systems and asking "how comfortable are we in putting AI in the kill chain", he adds.

But China is very comfortable with that, Dr Raska says. "They believe they can control AI. They are going all the way to integrate it into their systems."

A graphic with annotation for the robot wolves reads "Can be equipped to perform different roles alongside soldiers, such as reconnaissance and transporting ammunition"

4. China may have the technology, but the US still has an edge

The parade clearly shows that China is catching up quickly with the US in its military technology, and has the resources to build up a huge arsenal of weapons.

But the US still maintains an edge in terms of operations, experts say.

The US military "excels" because there is a "bottom-up" culture where units on the ground can make decisions as the situation evolves and alter their fighting strategies, Dr Raska notes. This makes them more agile in a battle.

A graphic with annotation for the GJ-11 stealth drone reads "Part of China's fleet of unmanned combat aerial vehicles"

China, on the other hand, is "top-down" where "they can have flashy platforms and systems but they will not move a finger until they receive an order from the top", he adds.

"The Chinese think its technology that creates deterrence. They believe that will deter the US... but at the operational level, there have been instances which show they may not be as good as they say they are", Dr Raska says, pointing to recent encounters such as an incident last month when a Chinese warship rammed one of its own smaller vessels as they confronted the Philippine coast guard.

5. The parade was a weapons sales pitch – and a chance to show the US a united front

With the leaders of more than two dozen countries invited to the event, the parade of weapons and tanks was essentially a giant sales pitch on Chinese arms to potential buyers, Mr Neill points out.

Some of the countries in attendance such as Myanmar are already known to be buying huge quantities of Chinese weapons. But the chance to sell to new customers or increase orders is how the Chinese government can extend its influence globally, Dr Raska notes.

A graphic with annotations that highlight , Russian Putin, North Korean leader Kim, Iranian President Pezeshkian, Azerbaijiani President Aliyev in a group photo 

The parade was attended by some heads of state while most Western leaders shied away from it

Among the key clients were those standing front and centre with – Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un.

The three presented a united front as they walked to the parade together and stood on stage.

That was a message to the US, Mr Neill says: if America wanted to really challenge them it would mean "fighting them on several potential theatres at the same time – the Korean peninsula, Taiwan Straits, and Ukraine".

"And if you consider it, putting pressure on the US on all three domains, it may fail in one of those theatres."

中国在大规模阅兵式上展示了一系列新型武器、无人机和其他军事装备,许多人认为这是向美国及其盟国发出的明确信息。

 

在这次活动中,接待了 20 多位外国元首,包括俄罗斯的弗拉基米尔·普京和朝鲜的金正恩,他们都依赖中国提供经济支持等。

 

这是习在世界舞台上日益增长的实力和中国军事实力的展示——这场表演包括“关岛杀手”导弹、“忠诚僚机”无人机,甚至还有机器狼。

 

除了炒作和闪亮的新武器之外,我们还学到了什么?

 

以下是我们的五个要点。

 

1、中国有很多武器。它能如何部署它们?

 

从周三的展示中可以清楚地看出,中国已经能够迅速生产各种武器。

 

新加坡南洋理工大学军事转型项目助理教授迈克尔·拉斯卡(Michael Raska)指出,十年前,他们展示的军事技术往往是美国发明的更先进装备的“基本复制品”。

 

但这次阅兵展示了更具创新性和多样性的武器范围,特别是无人机和导弹——这反映了他们的国防工业综合体已经变得多么先进。

 

太平洋论坛兼职研究员亚历山大·尼尔(Alexander Neill)指出,中国自上而下的结构和大量资源使其能够比许多其他国家更快地生产新武器。

 

它还可以大量生产它们,使其具有战场优势,可以压倒敌人。

 

“中国有能力生产弹药、舰艇和所有这些平台......国家可以下达这些指令,然后就可以了,“尼尔先生说。

 

但中国军队如何整合这些武器系统呢?

 

“他们可以炫耀这些华而不实的高级平台,但他们在组织上是否敏捷,可以按照他们想要的方式使用它们?“ 拉斯卡博士问道。

 

他补充说,这并不容易,因为中国军队规模庞大且未经考验,因为它已经几十年没有卷入重大战争了。

 

2、中国正专注于导弹以对抗美国

 

中国已经推出了大量导弹,包括一些新的变种。

 

其中包括东风-61,其鼻锥中能够携带多个弹头;可以从中国北方发射并打击美国的东风-5C洲际弹道导弹;以及“关岛杀手”东风-26D中程导弹,可能会打击美军在关岛的关键军事基地。

 

东风-61导弹的一张带有注释的图形写着“中国能够携带核弹头的新型洲际导弹”

 

东风-61导弹在阅兵式上首次公开亮相

 

还有几种高超音速反舰导弹,如鹰击-17和鹰击-19,它们可以飞行速度非常快,机动变幻莫测,以躲避反导系统。

 

这种对导弹的关注是有原因的。

 

尼尔说,中国一直在发展导弹和火箭军,作为其威慑战略的关键部分,并对抗美国的海军优势。

 

美国海军拥有最大的航空母舰和航母打击群舰队,在世界上是无与伦比的——中国在这方面仍然落后。

 

但是,尼尔指出,西方国防界的一些人越来越多地认为这些打击群很脆弱,因为它们实际上是任何导弹袭击的“坐鸭子”。

 

他说,北京不仅在加强威慑,而且还在建立“第二次打击能力”——一个国家在受到攻击时发动报复性打击的能力。

 

其他值得注意的武器包括备受关注的 LY-1 激光武器,它基本上是一种巨大的激光,可以燃烧或禁用电子设备,甚至使飞行员失明;以及各种第五代隐形战斗机,包括歼-20和歼-35飞机。

 

3、中国在人工智能和无人机上一路走来

 

无人机种类繁多,其中一些是人工智能驱动的,但最引人注目的是 AJX-002 巨型潜艇无人机。

 

它也被称为超大型无人水下航行器 (XLUUV),长度可达 20 米(65 英尺),可以执行监视和侦察任务。

 

AJX-002 无人机的注释图形上写着“一辆巨大的 60 英尺(18 米)水下核无人驾驶飞行器”

 

中国还展示了其被称为“忠诚僚机”的 GJ-11 隐形攻击无人机,它可以与有人驾驶战斗机并肩飞行并协助其进行攻击。

 

除了一系列常规的无人机外,还有“机器狼”。专家表示,这些可用于各种任务,从侦察和扫雷到追捕敌方士兵。

 

无人机展示显示了中国军事战略的明确方向,即“不仅要增强,而且要取代传统结构”。

 

拉斯卡博士指出,它显然从乌克兰战争中吸取了教训,人们可以“向敌人投掷无人机”来削弱他们的防御。

 

“杀伤链的敏捷性很重要,”尼尔先生补充道,并指出在快速移动的战斗中,必须在“纳秒”内做出决定才能击败敌人并占据上风——而这正是人工智能可以做到的。

 

他补充说,许多国家仍然担心在其军事系统中部署人工智能,并询问“我们将人工智能纳入杀伤链的舒适程度”。

 

但拉斯卡博士说,中国对此非常满意。“他们相信自己可以控制人工智能。他们正在一路将其集成到他们的系统中。

 

带有机器人狼注释的图形上写着“可以装备与士兵一起执行不同的角色,例如侦察和运输弹药”

 

4.中国可能拥有技术,但美国仍然具有优势

 

阅兵式清楚地表明,中国在军事技术上正在迅速赶上美国,并拥有建立庞大武器库的资源。

 

但专家表示,美国在行动方面仍然保持优势。

 

拉斯卡博士指出,美国军方“出类拔萃”,因为存在一种“自下而上”的文化,地面部队可以随着局势的发展做出决定并改变他们的作战策略。这使他们在战斗中更加敏捷。

 

GJ-11隐形无人机的注释图上写着“中国无人作战飞行器机队的一部分”

 

另一方面,中国是“自上而下”的,“他们可以拥有华而不实的平台和系统,但在收到高层的命令之前,他们不会动一根手指头”,他补充道。

 

“中国人认为其技术可以产生威慑。他们认为这将威慑美国......但在作战层面,有一些例子表明他们可能并不像他们所说的那么好“,拉斯卡博士说,并指出了最近的遭遇,例如上个月发生的一起事件,当时一艘中国军舰在与菲律宾海岸警卫队对峙时撞上了自己的一艘小型船只。

 

5. 阅兵式是一次武器推销——也是向美国展示统一战线的机会

 

尼尔指出,由于二十多个国家的领导人受邀参加此次活动,这次武器和坦克阅兵基本上是向潜在买家推销中国武器的一次巨大宣传。

 

据了解,缅甸等一些与会国家正在大量购买中国武器。但拉斯卡博士指出,向新客户销售产品或增加订单的机会是中国政府将其影响力扩大到全球的方式。

 

一张带有注释的图形,突出了习和他的妻子、俄罗斯普京、朝鲜领导人金正恩、伊朗总统佩泽什基安、阿塞拜疆总统阿利耶夫在合影中

 

一些国家元首参加了游行,而大多数西方领导人则回避了游行

 

主要客户包括那些站在习习面前和中间的人——弗拉基米尔·普京和金正恩。

 

三人一起走向游行队伍并站上舞台,呈现出统一战线。

 

尼尔说,这是向美国传达的信息:如果美国真的想挑战他们,就意味着“同时在朝鲜半岛、台湾海峡和乌克兰等几个潜在战区与他们作战”。

 

“如果你考虑一下,在所有三个领域向美国施加压力,它可能会在其中一个战区失败。

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