几个围绕美国cpi的前瞻性指标分享:公寓紧张度（领先住房cpi一年），二手车市场竞拍价（领先二手车cpi两个月），中国进口贸易（略领先标普大宗商品指数），小企业提价计划（领先头条cpi三个月），小企业涨薪计划（领先核心cpi六个月）。 PS:不要再盯着cpi这种滞后指标了,做事判断要有前瞻性。昨晚一堆人开了看跌期权来对冲今天通胀可能远超预期的结果，结果今天被市场教训活生生打脸。要有卓越洞察的先见之明，预料到市场不一样的，否则人云亦云。

摩根斯坦利资管部深度洞察系列之ROIC妙用:The research shows that those companies that sustained high ROICs and high sales growth generated much higher total shareholder returns than companies with low returns and growth.The ROIC calculation is meant to provide insight into how efficiently a company uses its operating capital. An assessment of management’s capital allocation skills focuses on how the company allocates its resources and what the prospective returns from those actions may look like.ROIC is a snapshot in time. But investors should care a great deal about how ROIC will change over time. We can use the tools we have to measure return on incremental invested capital (ROIIC). Rising ROIICs pull aggregate ROICs up. That said, a study of base rates shows that ROIC is, in the aggregate, subject to regression toward the mean. That implies that extreme good or bad outcomes will be followed by outcomes with an expected value closer to the average. Investors should always keep both ideas in mind. Look for increasing returns while understanding that achieving and sustaining high returns is rare.ROIC can be broken down into a measure of margins, or profitability per unit (NOPAT/Sales), and capital efficiency (Sales/Invested capital). Attractive ROICs for companies pursuing a differentiation strategy come via high margins. Similarly good ROICs for companies following a cost leadership strategy are the result of above-average capital efficiency. A decomposition of ROIC can provide concrete clues about a company’s strategy and serve as a guide for strategic analysis.

百年未有之大变局:股债双杀自1926一共仅出现三次，上一次出现是70年代。全球各地央行加息来得太迅猛，债市收益率飙升导致债根本无法避险（价格与收益率成反比，固定收益率无法覆盖债券价格端下跌带来的资本损失），股更不可能。若以2000年之后历史为参照，当前仅有25%的指标（图9）显示美联储有转向鸽派的迹象。

苹果自由现金流1110亿美元，对比下其他公司的“市值” ​​​，自由现金流比奈飞市值还高

外商对华直接投资vs境外对华债券投资（当季值） ​​​

按照营业收入（单季度同比/环比）、销售商品、提供劳务收到的现金（单季度同比/环比）、合同负债（单季度环比）等3项财务指标、五个维度均不小于15%的标准把目前已经公布2022年三季报的上市公司（含北交所）简单筛选了一遍。结论如下： 1、粗略筛选范围是4,970家（可能存在部分上市公司数据抓取不到的情况），满足上述要求的共有173家； 2、从所属申万行业来看，机械设备行业最多，有20家；电力设备行业有19家，如$隆基绿能(601012.SH)$ ；公用事业行业有18家，主要集中在火力发电这个细分行业；汽车、汽车零部件行业有18家，如$比亚迪(002594.SZ)$ 、$爱玛科技(603529.SH)$ ；农林牧渔行业14家；食品饮料行业只有4家，其中白酒行业只有股王$贵州茅台(600519.SH)$ 满足条件；$宁德时代(300750.SZ)$ 的合同负债环比微增，没有入选。 3、市场板块的涨跌情况基本还是与行业景气度比较匹配的，但近期市场泥沙俱下，不少公司存在一定的错杀的可能，大家可以结合吾股排名、研报各自挖掘；当然也可以逆向筛选，赌一个困境反转，富贵险中求😉 4、Excel上传在百度网盘了，如需可下载参考看看。 链接：网页链接 提取码：o5m3